Weekly Outlook

Quarterly earnings of India Inc, progress of monsoon rains, domestic and global macroeconomic data, trend in global markets, the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate trend on the bourses in the week ahead. The progress of the southwest monsoon rains will be keenly watched. The India Meteorological Department said that actual cumulative area weighted rainfall (mm) for the country as a whole till 2 August 2017 equaled normal rainfall. The June-September southwest monsoon is critical for the country's agriculture because a considerable part of the country's farmland is dependent on the rains for irrigation. Among prominent companies which will announce their April-June 2017 quarterly results next week, Britannia Industries, Tata Steel, Thermax, Bank of India, Aurobindo Pharma, Eicher Motors, NHPC, NMDC, Tata Motors, Bharat Heavy Electricals, GAIL (India), MOIL, Bank of Baroda, BPCL, Cipla and Hindalco Industries. On the macro economic front, the index of IIP data for the month of June is slated to release after market hours on Friday. Among global data, Japan trade balance data for the month of June 2017 is scheduled to release on Monday. China trade balance data for the month of July is scheduled to release on Tuesday. China foreign direct investment (FDI) data for July is slated on Friday.

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Technical Outlook

Nifty closed again in the positive territory as anticipated after forming a “morning star reversal” candlestick pattern. Now, on the upside the Nifty is close to achieve a minimum of 50% retracement target i.e. 9912 levels and above that 9965 which is 61.8% retracement of the entire recent fall from 10137 to 9685 levels. The fall is likely to be a corrective one and this week is expected to be a positive weekly close which will further confirm the same. The fall in Indian markets has been mostly corrective in nature by that we mean there has been a rare impulse on the way down which makes it very interesting as the aggressive short sellers are trapped most of the times which leads to another uptrend or short covering in the markets. The momentum indicators are in sell mode both on the daily as well as the weekly charts, hence the medium term bias is negative. On the lower side, 9830 is an immediate support whereas the ultimate support for this bounce is 9773.

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9927.65 30.35 (0.31 %)