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Weekly Outlook

Domestic stock markets edged higher during the week after the RBI lowered inflation forecast for year ending 31 March 2019 amid higher growth projection as part of its monetary policy review. In the week ended Friday, the Sensex and Nifty both jumped 2% to settle at 33,627 and 10332 levels respectively. On the macro front, data released by government indicated the output of eight core infrastructure sector, increased 5.3% in February 2018 over February 2017. Its cumulative output moved up 4.3% in April to February 2017-18. The Reserve Bank of India maintained status quo in its first bimonthly monetary policy meeting. The RBI lowered its inflation projection H1:2018-19 to 4.7-5.1% and 4.4% in H2, including the HRA impact for central government employees, with risks tilted to the upside. On the global front, US trade deficit rose 1.6% in February and remained near a 10-year high. The US trade deficit rose to $57.6 billion in February from $56.7 billion in the prior month.

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Technical Outlook

Nifty closed in the positive in last trading session and the momentum indicators on the daily charts are in buy mode which indicates that the bulls are back in action. The Index was unable was to take off its previous swing high of 10930 on closing basis despite having bounced so sharply which indicates that the overall trend is still sideways. However, if the swing high of 10930 is broken then a further upside in the Index can’t be ruled out. Now, on the downside, the support is pegged at 10709 levels whereas 10930 is the ultimate resistance in the series wherein there is highest OI. So, the short term range is 10709 to 10930 and above or below this it will approach the broader range of 10550 to 10930 levels.

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