Weekly Outlook

Domestic stock markets edged higher during the week after the RBI lowered inflation forecast for year ending 31 March 2019 amid higher growth projection as part of its monetary policy review. In the week ended Friday, the Sensex and Nifty both jumped 2% to settle at 33,627 and 10332 levels respectively. On the macro front, data released by government indicated the output of eight core infrastructure sector, increased 5.3% in February 2018 over February 2017. Its cumulative output moved up 4.3% in April to February 2017-18. The Reserve Bank of India maintained status quo in its first bimonthly monetary policy meeting. The RBI lowered its inflation projection H1:2018-19 to 4.7-5.1% and 4.4% in H2, including the HRA impact for central government employees, with risks tilted to the upside. On the global front, US trade deficit rose 1.6% in February and remained near a 10-year high. The US trade deficit rose to $57.6 billion in February from $56.7 billion in the prior month.

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Technical Outlook

Nifty closed in the negative in last trading session and it has taken support at 10475 levels as anticipated and we did see a rally coming from those levels. Now, the support on the lower side is 10475 levels and 10400 levels whereas targets on the upside come to 10600 and 10630 levels. Our target of 10630 is quite near and looks quite achievable so, the next target comes to 10700 levels. On the daily chart the Index has surpassed 38.2% retracement levels of its previous fall and now it’s heading towards 50% retracement levels. Above 50% retracement level the next target comes to 61.8% retracement levels i.e. 10700 levels.

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